Real predictors for the midterms, or Data Don't Lie II
August 8, 2025 - News, Views and To-Dos for Democrats
What Art Friedson Has On His Mind
A little more than a year ago, I tried to calm the butterflies in my stomach and yours by saying traditional predictors of election results couldn’t possibly apply to the forthcoming election. Hell, even I thought the country was on the wrong track, but I certainly wasn’t going to let Donald Trump send it completely off the tracks. I was convinced a huge majority of Americans would feel the same way.
I was so wrong.
Many years ago, I was renovating a house and reeling from the expense. I complained to my contractor about all the labor and lumber that went into building a temporary wall that would come down almost as soon as it went up. He smiled at me kindly and said, “The laws of physics are not suspended during construction.”
So I spent the last couple of weeks thinking about the peculiar laws of physics that apply to politics. In these days when every news cycle feels like a kick in the gut, I was eager to concede my previous biases and set off to learn the real rules of the political road. Then I dug into the data to see how things are looking.
I’m afraid to say this out loud, but it gave me more than just a glimmer of hope. I’ll share what I found with you now.
Presidential approval ratings still matter a lot. A whole lot. This one metric is probably the single biggest predictor of how midterm elections will go for the incumbent party. While Trump’s numbers aren’t doing a nosedive (I know, I know…how on earth can that be so?), they are on a steady downward slope. Approval of 45% or greater seems to be about as low as a president can go without getting absolutely creamed in the midterms, and that’s about where he is when you average out the polls. In 2022, Biden’s approval ratings were right in this range, and Dems lost 10 seats in the midterms. The last time Trump was president, his approval ratings were in the 40-42% range, and the R’s lost 40 seats in the 2018 midterms.
Right track/Wrong Track numbers pave the way to victory or defeat. Real Clear Politics reports that those numbers are now about 41.3% right track to 53.6% wrong track which puts Trump 12.3% underwater. A YouGov poll taken just last week has him down by 16.4 points, 38.3/54.7, and they go on to note that among Independents, the numbers are 30.3/61.8, a whopping 31.5 points down.
Remember way back in 2024 when guys like Axelrod and Carville drew the wrath of the Party by pointing out that you just can’t win with numbers like that? Well, I wasn’t one of those who told you so then, but now I desperately want it to be true in 2026 and 2028.
It’s still the economy, stupid. One surefire signal that Donald Trump senses that he’s in trouble is the frequency and intensity of the lies he promulgates about an issue. Our friends at Hacks On Tap played a series of clips this week of Trump saying all kinds of stupid, obviously false stuff about how much better the economy is now that he’s president.
I went to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis site to look up the cost of some of the items that Trump specifically lied about. The price of one pound of ground beef was $5.45 in January; now it’s $6.12. In that same period, the price of one pound of boneless chicken breast went from $3.97 to $4.24 a pound.
And how about his Drill Baby Drill policies of casting aside the science of climate change and doubling down on fossil fuels? Setting aside the long-term climate nightmare he is abetting, the average price of a gallon of gas is now 10 cents higher than it was in January, and the cost of one kilowatt of electricity is up about 6% as well (both are a whole lot higher here in Illinois).
And BTW, even if he succeeds in bringing down the price of oil, that will have a negative impact on domestic oil production. Finding oil these days is a very expensive proposition. If oil prices drop much more from where they are now, domestic producers are going to Pass Baby Pass on future exploration and production.
Thanks to his tariffs and his chaos, we are seeing the weakest pace of job growth since the start of the pandemic in 2020. Manufacturing jobs - ostensibly the whole point of his tariff war - fell in 2Q2025 to its lowest level since October, 2018.
Financial insecurity runs deep in American families. A recent Morning Consult poll reported these results:
“More than 4 in 5 Americans (83 percent) are concerned about the price of groceries, with nearly half (46 percent) saying they are very concerned. Nearly half (47 percent) of Americans are worried about their current ability to pay their rent or mortgage. And nearly two-thirds (64 percent) worry about their ability to pay an unexpected medical expense if one should arise. Nearly half of all Americans (48 percent) believe they would have difficulty paying an unexpected $500 bill without borrowing.
“More than three-quarters of Americans (76 percent) say they are concerned about a possible recession, with more than 4 in 10 (41 percent) indicating they are very concerned.”
But here’s the thing: they go on to note that 63% of Americans blame Trump for driving up grocery prices and the cost of living. “When thinking of their own financial situation, nearly 8 in 10 Americans—including nearly 70 percent of Republicans—say they’re concerned that President Trump’s tariffs will raise prices on everyday goods such as clothing and appliances.” Guess what? They’re right.
Immigration. Trump’s other signature issue, immigration, is quickly losing its cache with voters. American voters are returning to the center in the face of Trump’s deliberate cruelty and wanton disregard for the law.
Gallup reports that the Surge in U.S. Concern About Immigration Has Abated. Only 30% of Americans now believe that immigration should be reduced. That number has dropped by half in recent weeks, bringing it back to its lowest level since 2021. A record-high 79% now consider immigration good for the country. Support for a border wall and mass deportations has fallen dramatically, while support for finding a path to citizenship for Dreamers is now at 85%!
You can always count on Trump to overplay his hand, and he has certainly done that with immigration. 62% of respondents in a sample intentionally overweighted with Latino voters now say that they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the issue, including 45% who strongly disapprove.
All the rest. History is on our side: the incumbent party gets slammed in the midterms far more often than not. All of the reliable indicators of how the midterm elections will go are pointing in our direction: presidential approval rating is down, right track/wrong track numbers are dismal, families are suffering under the Trump economy, and his Greatest Hits issues like immigration and the border wall are now working against him.
All that said, extreme gerrymandering makes it a lot harder to win seats these days than it used to be. But the laws of physics are not suspended during the Trump Administration. Let’s fight for democracy and physics in 2026!
Check It Out with Nancy Kohn
JB in Vanity Fair. Governor JB Pritzker is clearly making his mark on the national scene as a leader of “Team Fight” for Democrats. His latest move is welcoming and protecting the Texas legislators who have fled the state to deny a quorum that would allow Texas to do an off-cycle, purely partisan re-map to gerrymander more Republican seats in the upcoming U.S. congressional election. Check out this short, flattering piece by Molly Jong-Fast.
We choose hope. A lot is being said about how poorly the Democratic Party is polling these days, but don’t give up hope. First, we’re in that uncomfortable time after a heartbreaking loss and before a new leader emerges. Bad numbers right now are entirely predictable, but hopefully, temporary. Plus, there are signs of life! We’ve got an amazing bench of rising stars, particularly among our Democratic governors, including hot races this November in Virginia and New Jersey. And we are winning on the generic ballot for the upcoming Congressional races. The answer to the question, “Are you more likely to vote for a Democrat or a Republican?” has already swung from +2.7 for Republicans at the end of the 2024 cycle to +3.6 for Democrats in the latest RealClearPolitics average of polls. Remember, too, that the low-propensity voters who helped Trump over the electoral threshold tend not to participate in midterm elections. Conversely, college-educated voters who tend overwhelmingly towards the Democratic Party do show up to vote in the midterms. This theory is supported by CNN reports on polling results, which show that Democrats are far more motivated to vote in the upcoming midterms than Republicans.
Ask someone who knows. You don’t need to be a political genius to know that it’s a whole lot harder for Democrats to win in red states and swing states. If we want to win national elections and gain congressional majorities, these are the voices we need to heed. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto has won repeatedly in Nevada, a feat that is no easy accomplishment. She recently got into a verbal scuffle with Senator Cory Booker on the Senate floor over her support for a series of bipartisan policing bills. In her brief interview with the NYTimes’ Annie Karni, she lays out a convincing case for reaching across the aisle when we can and digging in our heels when we can’t. You should check it out.
Paid subscribers to the NKC Update should stay tuned for our next live Zoom meeting in September with another Democrat who knows a whole lot about running successfully in red districts, former Congresswoman Cheri Bustos.
Equality Illinois opportunity. Equality Illinois strives to create a world that is healthy, just, and fully equal for all LGBTQ+ people. They are currently accepting applications for their 2025-2026 Community Advisory Group, a diverse cross-section of voices from across Illinois that informs the policy positions and initiatives they adopt and pursue. You can get more information here.
Just for fun. In this increasingly difficult news landscape, The Reader is still around, and we are grateful. Check out their new Food & Drink Issue and let us know if you have tried out any of their suggestions.
Also, keep this in mind for when you need it: The Atlantic has published 25 Feel-Good Films You’ll Want to Watch Again—And Again.
What I’m reading. I’ve just finished the 25th book in the series by Daniel Silva, An Inside Job. The protagonist is art restorer and legendary spy Gabriel Allon, who takes you behind the scenes in an unusual art heist. Allon makes his home in Venice, and is a frequent visitor to the Vatican and other points of interest. A fun summer read!
P.S. We’re heading to France on vacation next week, and as such, we’ll be following the great French tradition of taking the rest of August off from work. Send us your recommendations! Look for the next newsletter on September 5th.
On The Calendar
Brunch with Democrats and Leader Hakeem Jeffries: The Illinois Democratic County Chairs’ Association 2025 County Chairs’ Brunch is Wednesday, August 13th, at 9:00 am, in Springfield. They will be recognizing the IWIL Training Academy with their 2025 Party Builder Award. Click here to learn more.
Last call to meet Abigail Spanberger. Please join Christie Hefner as she hosts a reception for the next Governor of Virginia, Abigail Spanberger, in her home with co-host Gila Bronner on Wednesday, August 13th, at 6:30 p.m. Click here to RSVP or donate.
What you do matters. The United States Holocaust Memorial Museum’s 2025 Risa K. Lambert Chicago Luncheon will be held on Wednesday, September 3rd, at the Sheraton Grand Chicago. Registration opens at 11:00 a.m., and the program starts at noon.
This year, the keynote speaker will be David M. Rubenstein, Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of The Carlyle Group. Rachel and David Sternberg are the luncheon chairs, and the National Leadership Award will be presented to Sally and Jon Kovler. Cousin Jill Weinberg, is the Midwest Director of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, so please join us in showing your support! Click here to purchase tickets and donate.
Save the date! Planned Parenthood Illinois Action (PPIA PAC) will be holding their 2025 Fighting Forward event for reproductive freedom and bodily autonomy on Thursday, September 18th, at Taste 222 in Chicago. VIP Reception at 5:30 p.m. followed by general admission at 6:30 p.m. RSVP or donate here.
Restore Justice. The criminal justice system can sometimes seem irreparably broken. Repair Justice works to eliminate extreme sentences of young people in Illinois. You can support them by attending their annual luncheon, Stories of Transformation, on Friday, October 17th, from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. in downtown Chicago. Click here to RSVP or donate.
Jobs and Internships
NEW! A Silver Lining Foundation is a nonprofit organization, founded in 2002 to provide access to cost-free breast health testing for those who are uninsured, underinsured or otherwise ineligible for other breast health testing programs. They are seeking an Executive Director with strong experience in fundraising and grant writing. Check out their website and contact drsandy@asilverliningfoundation.org for details and instructions to apply.
NEW! America Votes partners with more than 400 progressive organizations to build a more representative democracy, strengthen every American’s right to vote, and win elections in key states. They currently have four open positions, two in D.C. and two remote positions for a Campaigns Director and a Deputy Campaigns Director-Programs. Click here for links to all of the positions.
ADL is the leading anti-hate organization in the world. They are seeking a Regional Director (Midwest) to provide strategic, programmatic, and operational oversight of ADL’s Midwest region, including multiple regional offices across the states served. Click here for more information.
The Obama Foundation’s mission is to inspire people to take action, empower them to change their world for the better, and connect them so they can achieve more together than they can alone. They are now hiring an Executive Vice President, Chief Development Officer. Click here for more information.
The Woods Fund Chicago has links to job openings at various organizations that they fund. Check out their newsletter and scroll down for the job listings.
Impact for Equity has grown from a small, upstart public interest law firm into one of Chicago’s most respected law and policy centers, driving statewide change across Illinois in pursuit of racial, economic, and social justice. They are seeking an Executive Director who will provide leadership in developing and implementing a new strategic plan to address the evolving needs of Impact for Equity and its stakeholders; consistently engage in sophisticated/innovative strategic communications, public advocacy and visibility; and establish and maintain relationships with individual donors, donor organizations, universities, public officials, civic and partner organizations in a manner that promotes the mission and work of Impact for Equity. Get more information and apply here.
Advance Illinois is a not-for-profit policy and advocacy organization that works toward a healthy public education system, preparing students to achieve success in college, career, and civic life. They are currently seeking to fill two positions: a Senior Government Relations Associate to work on issues related to state education policy, and a Senior Development Associate to lead a comprehensive, growing, and sustainable year-round fundraising program that supports and expands the general operations and programs of Advance Illinois. Click on the appropriate position for more information and to apply.
Internship! Ready to kickstart your career in politics? Apply for the IWIL Training Academy’s fall internship! If you’re passionate about empowering pro-choice Democratic women to lead, this is your chance to make a difference. You’ll gain hands-on experience and connect with inspiring leaders. Internships are hybrid and unpaid; school credit is an option. Interested applicants should email a cover letter and resume to Sofia Rodriguez at staff@iwiltrainingacademy.org
Brandon’s Internships Bulletin is now Brandon’s Hillternship Hub. The new site links to four tables, which contain the internship pages for every Democratic House office, House committee website, Senate office, and Senate committee. In addition, it includes info on whether the internship application is open, the application deadline, and key details on the position (dates, pay, time commitment, etc.). He also publishes a weekly email with the latest listings for internships in progressive politics, nonprofits, and foreign policy/international affairs. Subscribe at brandonsbulletin.substack.com.
Finally, here are some useful links to check out if you’re searching for a job in politics, policy, or advocacy:
Daybook is a valuable resource for individuals seeking political, policy, and government jobs nationwide.
Want to work with progressive organizations or nonprofits doing good? Check out the listings at Democracy Partners, Grossman Solutions, NPAG, and Forefront.
Here are two good sites to land campaign jobs at the entry level and beyond: Emily’s List and GainPower.
Thanks for reading and welcome to our new subscribers. Special thanks to the growing ranks of great folks who have demonstrated their support by becoming paid subscribers; you’re an exceptional bunch and we hope you’ll stay tuned for an upcoming Zoom event with former Congresswoman Cheri Bustos in September.
Who are we? Since 2003, we’ve been sharing our news, views and to-dos. The NKC Occasional Update is brought to you by Nancy Kohn, a seasoned political consultant in Chicago, and Art Friedson, a dedicated political enthusiast. We enjoy hearing from our readers, so feel free to post directly on this article or send us an email. Thank you for your support!
Nancy Kohn nkohn@kohnconsulting.com Art Friedson art.friedson@gmail.com
Points well taken. Thanks from Art.
This is indeed encouraging news, but we have to do a lot more. There seems to be a general ambivalence among so many. The Dems need a strong, clear message of what they will do that is more than just "We aren't Trump."